"You mean I have to change?"

Operation Successful, Patient Died

Ron (not his real name) was a steadily improving trader.

Based on his system testing he was very successful, but somehow he did not seem to make much money or get to keep most of it.

So you could say that the operation was successful, but the patient died.

When Ron sought help he was very frustrated.     He just could not see why his theoretical profits varied so much from his actual performance.     He was at his 'wits end'.

A year ago, Ron was consistently losing money.     This was despite his system testing on 30 years of data suggesting a large monthly profit was available for the taking.     Over the last 12 months, Ron had, with concentrated effort, further improved his impressive trading system in three ways:

       
average losses were 24% lower,
       
average wins were 2% higher,
       
winning trades as proportion of losing trades had doubled.

But his actual trading results had only improved to the point where he was making a little money and giving up to half of it back - and his profits were only 15% of his theoretical profits at best.

When Ron completed a simple self-assessment questionnaire, four separate responses suggested that he was not following his trading system.

Sometimes this can be self-sabotage, an unwitting need to undermine a traders performance.     In this case it was simply an lack of awareness that turning knowledge of effective trader behaviour into actual trader behaviour is of similar importance in achieving trading success to turning identified market behaviours into a trading system that exploits those identified market behaviours.

The cure was almost as rapid as the diagnosis.     In case part of the problem was related to trading size, the following steps were suggested, and Ron was desperate enough to actually follow them rigorously:

       
open a small account with an internet dealer,
       
trading just a penny a point, trade his system,
       
keep a traders log to include system signals and actions taken,
       
notice discrepancies between signals and actions,
       
only (steadily) increase trade size as a reward for discrepancy rate reducing by 25%,
       
note new opportunities to improve mostly hidden by prior frustration.

Within three weeks Ron was making 85% of his theoretical profits and was delighted but with some reservations.     He also was excited by newly discovered opportunities.

Ron had to be persuaded that 85% was a good performance, because results from system testing by computer have two main deficits and so differ from the reality of trading because:

       
computers do not make the human errors made by human traders,
       
computers do not allow emotions from one trade influence the next.

Lessons Learnt

The lessons learnt include:

       
market behaviour and trader behaviour are both important,
       
both need to be turned into systems - a trading system and a trader system,
       
if you keep doing what you are doing you will keep getting what you are getting,
       
success is a journey, not a destination.

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