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TradersCALM - Price Based Persistence © "Dedicated to trading with good feelings." All services are free. |
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Price based market persistence is here defined as the tendency for any move to continue in the same direction for various numbers of price steps. The example given here is for a spread of highly correlated markets, which provides positive attributes for two main classes of traders. For those trading direction as trend-followers, some using a volatility break-out style of trading, momentum players etcetera, higher persistence levels are available, if for smaller moves, than available for trading a single component of the spread. The attributes of the spread are often employed, by faders and arbitrageurs,volatility-removers etcetera - despite the higher persistence of individual trades - to exploit the characteristics of relatively small adverse moves. For such types of trader, the odds of interest are the odds for a series of trades. Two highly correlated markets can be offset in a ratio inversely proportionate to their relative size. For example, currently the German quoted DAX is about 33% of the price of the US quoted DOW. So ignoring contract size difference, a ratio spread of about 3 DAX offset against each DOW might be employed. The example below is based on such a ratio spread using intra-day data and a (spread) price step of about 0.7% of the DOW. Some interesting results are obtained: higher, single trade persistence levels, acceptable cumulative persistence for faders. Employing spreads is just one example of the use of position sizing across two markets - now you understand one way position sizing techniques can be used to source high and regular trading profits. The table below shows the persistence levels for a multi-trade perspective. Given price steps Smoothed DAX/DOW Cumulative Persistence% (for another price-step) 1 60 2 36 3 22 4 13 5 8 |
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