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TradersCALM - Time Based Persistence © "Dedicated to trading with good feelings." All services are free. |
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Time based market persistence is here defined as the tendency for any move to continue in the same direction for various periods of time. A single market, for a short time, tends to show some persistence then reverses. This single market example is based on the Dow daily closes from 02 January 1900 to 24 April 1998. Almost a century of daily data and a time series of over 26,000 data points roughly equidistant has been assessed for directional time persistence and some interesting results are obtained for the DOW: 'retracements' become increasingly likely as the 'trend' continues, weekly time persistence is lower than daily persistence, persistence diminishes with duration for both time horizons. The table below shows the smoothed persistence for each of daily and weekly time horizons. DOW conditional DOW conditional Given duration Persistence % Persistence % (for a day) (for a week) 1 55 52 2 52 52 3 51 51 4 50 51 5 50 49 6 49 49 7 49 46 8 48 40 9 47 39 Statistical footnote: Conditional probabilities have been used as appropriate for a single trade perception. |
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