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TradersCALM - Market Persistence © "Dedicated to trading with good feelings." All services are free. |
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Freely traded markets go up and down - exploit this unchanging reality. Market persistence is here defined as the tendency, if any, for any freely traded market move to continue in the same direction. The persistence, or percentage probability of continuation of the move, can be measured in terms of either time or price. Time Based Persistence on Single Instrument A majority of traders trade a single instrument, often with a single entry point style of trading. Often such traders have loose or no predetermined price targets, letting market action over time determine their exit point. For such traders, including trend-followers, some using a volatility break-out style of trading, momentum players etcetera, maybe it makes sense to consider a time based measure of persistence. Example of persistence for a single instrument on a time basis. Price Based Persistence on a Spread Spreads can offer improved persistence characteristics for trend-followers. Other traders use multiple entry/exit points based on price step changes, or otherwise may have specific price targets, letting solely price action, not time determine their actions. For such traders, including arbitrageurs, spreaders, volatility-removers etcetera, maybe it makes sense to use a price based measure of persistence accumulated across multiple trades. Example of persistence for a spread of two instruments on a price basis. |
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