Last In, Rest Forgotten

Introduction

Jean (not her real name) had a marked perception deficit - and one she was not consciously aware of, because the perception deficit itself was part of the lens through which she perceived her environment.

She tended to place an extremely high weighting to the last occurrence of an event.     For example, the last time she over-rode her stop-loss it worked well for her.     As this was the last occurrence, this was way more important in influencing her perception of the utility of over-rides than all the previous occasions put together - majority of which, based on data supplied by Jean, had failed her.

So for Jean, over-rides of stops were now the way to go, and she ceased placing resting stop-loss orders in the market.     So, for the next few trades she used mental stops which she over-rode, until she lost heavily.

No problem, stop-losses are now the answer and she went back to employing resting stop-losses, at least until an over-ride worked well!

This behaviour pattern had apparently been repeating, sometimes several times in one month and over several years.     Based on her later assessment, the resultant losses accounted for over half her losses.

It took many months of coaching to get Jean to see what was going on and many more months to find a practical and acceptable (to Jean) circumvention of the problem.

Lessons Learnt

Now this was an extreme case, but many of us tend to employ enhanced weights to events that have occurred recently - and to this extent our perception bias may be limiting our learning and development in what is normally a game of odds.

For if the odds are not perceived clearly, we are unlikely to optimise our chances of success.

We can be unaware of some of our perception deficits - but that is what a coach or mentor is for - assuming they understand the issues and know how to resolve them.